Bitcoin at $75,000: what happened to the post-election crypto rally?

Bitcoin closed October 2026 at approximately $77,424 — down 7.3% for the month. That made it the worst October for Bitcoin since 2016. By November 7, it had slipped further to around $75,700, breaking below the $76,000 level that traders had been watching as support.

The timing was jarring. For months, crypto bulls had argued that the November midterm elections would be Bitcoin's catalyst. Democrats winning Congress, the thesis went, would finally bring regulatory clarity — stablecoin legislation, a clear framework for crypto exchanges, an end to enforcement-by-action from the SEC. The rally never came.

What actually happened: a week-by-week breakdown

The pattern: each time there was a potential catalyst, the follow-through failed. The election spike on November 3 lasted hours, not days.

Why the post-election rally didn't happen

1. ETF outflows reversed the structural bid

Bitcoin ETFs — launched in January 2024 — created a new institutional demand base that was widely credited with driving Bitcoin to its $109,000 all-time high in January 2025. That demand can also reverse. In October–November 2026, combined BTC and ETH ETF net outflows totalled approximately $530 million.

That $530 million is small relative to total Bitcoin ETF AUM (now above $100 billion). But the direction matters. When ETF flows were positive, they absorbed selling. When they flipped negative, they added to it. The structural support became a structural headwind, temporarily.

2. Interest rates: the inflation problem

The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75–4.00% at its October 28 meeting. Then on November 10, October CPI data came in hotter than expected. The implication: rates staying higher for longer.

Bitcoin is a high-beta risk asset with zero intrinsic yield. In a world of 4% risk-free rates, the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin is significant. Rate-sensitive assets — growth tech, long-duration bonds, crypto — all sold off on the inflation data.

3. Democratic Congress ≠ crypto clarity

The "Democratic win = crypto regulation clarity" thesis had a logic to it: Democrats in Congress would pass stablecoin legislation, resolve the SEC's approach to exchanges, and create a framework that allowed institutional adoption to accelerate.

The problem: this narrative was overcrowded. Too many traders had positioned for it. When Democrats won on November 3 and the rally didn't materialise — because legislation still takes months and the stablecoin bill remained gridlocked — the crowded longs unwound. That's what drove November 4's flat-to-down performance on a day that "should" have been a crypto catalyst.

4. The broader risk-off environment

The same week saw the Nasdaq fall 5.5% on November 5 (Nvidia CEO investigation + hot inflation expectations). In risk-off environments, Bitcoin typically falls alongside high-beta equities. The correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq has been elevated since 2022.

Where Bitcoin stands now: context matters

The structural case for Bitcoin hasn't changed. Bitcoin ETFs holding $100B+ in BTC is a qualitatively different demand structure than existed in prior cycles. BlackRock, Fidelity, and other institutions are now running Bitcoin as a portfolio allocation, not a trade. That changes the floor.

The near-term headwind is macro. High rates, risk-off sentiment, and an election narrative that failed to materialise. These are temporary conditions, not structural breaks.

What Indian crypto investors should know

Direct crypto tax in India: flat 30%, no set-off

If you hold Bitcoin on WazirX, CoinDCX, or any international exchange directly, Indian tax rules apply:

• 30% flat tax on all gains, regardless of holding period
• 1% TDS deducted on every transaction (buy and sell), regardless of profit or loss
• No set-off: you cannot offset Bitcoin losses against equity gains or other income
• Schedule VDA in ITR-2: mandatory annual disclosure of crypto holdings

International crypto via LRS

If you hold crypto on international exchanges (Coinbase, Kraken) via remittance from India, that falls under LRS. The tax treatment is still 30% flat — but you must also count the exchange balance in Schedule FA annual disclosure.

Important: sending remittances to crypto exchanges counts against your $250,000 LRS limit and attracts 20% TCS on amounts above ₹10 lakh/year.

The Bitcoin ETF route: potentially more tax-efficient

This is the angle most Indian investors miss. Bitcoin ETFs — IBIT, FBTC, BITB — are listed on US exchanges and trade like any other US stock. Indian investors can buy them through any LRS platform.

Tax treatment as a US-listed security (not crypto):

For a long-term Bitcoin holder who buys IBIT today and sells in 3 years, the difference is 12.5% vs 30% — on the same underlying Bitcoin exposure.

This isn't a tax avoidance scheme. It's using the existing tax rules correctly: the Income Tax Act taxes listed securities under Section 112A/111A, not under the VDA (virtual digital assets) provisions.

IBIT and FBTC: how they work

iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) — BlackRock's product, the largest by AUM.

• Holds physical Bitcoin (not futures)
• Custodian: Coinbase Custody
• Expense ratio: 0.25% (waived to 0.12% on first $5B; now back to 0.25%)
• Tracks Bitcoin price directly — no rolling risk from futures
• Liquidity: highest of all Bitcoin ETFs

Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) — Fidelity's self-custodied alternative.

• Holds physical Bitcoin
• Fidelity is its own custodian (not third party)
• Expense ratio: 0.25%
• Comparable performance to IBIT

How to buy from India:

1. Open a US brokerage account via Vested, INDmoney, Rovia, or Paasa
2. Remit funds via LRS (Purpose Code S0001)
3. Search "IBIT" or "FBTC" — same search as any US stock
4. Place order — fractional shares available on Vested and INDmoney

Cost of buying ₹1 lakh (~$1,053 at USD/INR 95) of IBIT:

Ethereum: the other ETF story

Ethereum ETFs launched in mid-2024 have had weaker inflows than Bitcoin ETFs — primarily because the SEC's approval excluded staking yield, which is Ethereum's main income-generating mechanism. Without staking, an ETH ETF is just price exposure.

October 2026: ETH ETF outflows contributed to the broader crypto selling alongside Bitcoin ETF outflows. The combined $530M figure includes both.

Ethereum's thesis depends on staking ETF approval (pending with the SEC) and continued developer adoption of its smart contract platform. For Indian investors, Ethereum ETFs (ETHA, FETH) are available on the same LRS platforms and have the same Indian tax treatment as IBIT.

Should Indian investors buy this dip?

The structural case:

• Bitcoin ETF AUM >$100B creates a demand floor that didn't exist in 2021–22 cycles
• $75K is a meaningful level — prior cycle peak was ~$69K (November 2021)
• Each halving cycle (last one: April 2024) has historically preceded 12–18 months of bull runs
• Institutional adoption is in early innings — pension funds, sovereign wealth funds not yet meaningfully allocated

The near-term headwinds:

• Rates staying elevated (Warsh Fed, hotter inflation)
• Risk-off macro environment
• Stablecoin/regulatory clarity in US: months away at minimum
• Bitcoin is highest-beta risk asset — in rate-driven selloffs, it falls harder than equities

Practical framework:

• If you have no Bitcoin exposure: starting a small SIP into IBIT (₹5,000–10,000/month via LRS) captures the structural case without timing risk
• If you already hold direct crypto: consider whether the tax efficiency of IBIT justifies switching (get CA advice on whether a disposition event is worth triggering)
• If you're speculating on a short-term bounce: the macro environment doesn't support it. Wait for Fed cut signals or ETF inflows turning positive.

For most Indian equity investors, Bitcoin is not core. A 3–5% portfolio allocation via IBIT captures the asymmetry without concentration risk.

Key dates to watch

Sources

Figures last checked November 2026. Crypto prices are volatile — verify before acting.

1. Bitcoin October 2026 price data — coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin (Nov 2026)
2. Bitcoin ETF AUM and flows — farside.co.uk/bitcoin-etf-flow-all-data (Nov 2026)
3. IBIT product page (iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF) — ishares.com/us/products/333011 (Nov 2026)
4. Indian crypto tax — VDA provisions, Section 115BBH — incometax.gov.in (Nov 2026)
5. RBI LRS framework — rbi.org.in/Scripts/FAQView.aspx?Id=115 (Nov 2026)
6. Income Tax Act — Section 112A (LTCG on listed securities) — incometax.gov.in (Nov 2026)

Vested.blog is the editorial publication of Rovia.