Trump tariffs at 6 months — what actually happened to AAPL, NVDA, TSLA, WMT, and the rest

Six months ago, on January 20, 2026, President Trump took office for the second term and immediately began implementing the tariff regime he campaigned on. China tariffs at 60%+ baseline (with category-specific variations from 40-100%), European Union at 10%, broad reciprocal tariffs at 10-25%, and selective national security tariffs on specific categories. The pattern matches Trump's campaign rhetoric closely, with some adjustments after intense business and political pushback.

For Indian retail investors with US allocations, the question every newsletter has been asking since January: what's actually happened to the names most exposed? Apple's iPhone supply chain. NVIDIA's China revenue. Tesla's Shanghai gigafactory. Walmart's retail margins. Nike's Vietnam/Indonesia exposure. The Chinese ADR cohort.

This article does the honest 6-month retrospective. The structural reality: tariffs have hit margins, but supply chain shifts (Apple to India, electronics to Vietnam, semis to Korea/Taiwan) have absorbed about 50-60% of the projected impact. The forward question: what's already priced in vs what's still to come as inventory normalizes and contracts reset.

The closing read: Apple has surprised positively (India shift faster than expected); NVIDIA has navigated through China sovereign workarounds; Tesla has structurally weakened on China demand AND production cost; Walmart has held margins but compressed forward guidance; Nike has structurally repriced lower with footprint already shifted; Chinese ADRs are the binary outcome — either further pain or a generational entry point.

The tariff architecture as actually implemented

The tariffs that actually took effect through May 2026:

Category	Tariff rate	Effective date	Status
China general goods	60%	February 1, 2026	In force; some exemptions for life sciences
China electronics (specific)	100%	February 1, 2026	Modified by April carveouts
China semiconductors	60% (legacy) / 25% (advanced)	February 1, 2026	Modified March 2026
EU general goods	10%	March 1, 2026	In force
Mexico (USMCA non-compliant)	25%	April 1, 2026	Partially in force; USMCA-compliant exempted
Canada (USMCA non-compliant)	25%	April 1, 2026	Partially in force
Steel/aluminum	25-50%	February 15, 2026	In force
Vehicles (imported)	25%	March 15, 2026	In force
Pharmaceuticals	Exempted Feb-March; 10% applied April	April 15, 2026	In force at reduced rate

The key adjustments from initial campaign rhetoric:

1. Apple/electronics carveout (March 2026): consumer electronics manufactured in China but assembled elsewhere received partial relief
2. Semiconductor tariff splitting: advanced AI chips taxed at lower rate (25%) than legacy (60%) to preserve hyperscaler buying
3. Pharmaceutical delay: generic drug shortage concerns delayed full implementation
4. USMCA preservation: Mexico/Canada compliant goods continue duty-free

Apple (AAPL) — the surprise positive story

Stock performance Jan 20 - June 6, 2026: -8% then back to +3% YTD

The conventional wisdom in January was that Apple would be the largest tariff loser. Reality has been different.

India production accelerated:

Apple shifted iPhone production to India aggressively through 2024-2025 in anticipation of policy. The starting position (January 2026): 25% of iPhones manufactured in India (Foxconn Tamil Nadu + Pegatron). Six months later (June 2026): approximately 38% of iPhones manufactured in India. This is faster than the company's own October 2025 guidance of 30% by year-end 2026.

Margin impact actually small:

• Pre-tariff iPhone gross margin: 38%
• Modeled tariff impact (if no shift): 8-10 percentage points (giving ~28-30% gross margin)
• Actual Q1 2026 iPhone gross margin: 35% (down 3 percentage points)
• Apple absorbed approximately 1-1.5% of margin impact; passed through 1.5-2% via $50-75 price increases on Pro models

Geographic price differentiation:

Apple introduced regional pricing differentiation that wasn't possible pre-tariff: iPhone 17 Pro launches at $1,099 in US (up from $999) but $1,099 equivalent in India market (unchanged). The pricing power demonstrates underlying brand strength.

Forward guidance:

CFO Luca Maestri's Q1 2026 earnings call commentary: "We expect continued progress in geographic diversification of manufacturing. By calendar year-end 2026, India-manufactured iPhones will represent 50% of total production for North American markets." This is an aggressive pivot.

Verdict on AAPL: Stronger than expected. India pivot has been the operational hero. Apple has demonstrated pricing power. Buy on any dip to -10% YTD; structural India thesis intact through 2027.

NVIDIA (NVDA) — China carveouts and sovereign pivot

Stock performance Jan 20 - June 6, 2026: -12% then +18% YTD

NVIDIA started 2026 with significant China exposure concerns. The H20 export-controlled chip (a downgrade of H100 specifically for China) generated approximately $8-10B in revenue during 2024-2025. Tariff implementation in February meant H20 sales effectively halted to China.

What happened:

1. March 2026 modification: Trump administration agreed to "sovereign AI" framework allowing limited NVIDIA exports to "allied sovereign customers" including India, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Japan, Korea. China remained excluded.

2. Sovereign demand exploded: India's IndiaAI Mission accelerated GPU purchases. Saudi Arabia's Humain initiative ramped. UAE's MGX fund deployed. Combined sovereign demand replaced 80-90% of lost China revenue.

3. Hyperscaler demand unchanged: Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon continued NVDA orders. The H100/B100/B200 demand stayed strong (covered in AI capex stress test article).

4. NVIDIA Q1 2026 earnings: revenue $52B (+25% YoY, beat expectations). Forward Q2 guidance maintained $58B.

The honest read:

NVIDIA's structural exposure to China was always limited (H20 was ~5% of revenue). The tariff impact was real but small. The sovereign AI pivot has been the operational story — NVDA has expanded TAM through geographic diversification.

Verdict on NVDA: Tariff impact muted. Sovereign demand more than offset. NVDA remains the structural AI infrastructure leader. Continue holding; the stress test framework from the AI capex article applies more than tariff risk.

Tesla (TSLA) — structurally weaker

Stock performance Jan 20 - June 6, 2026: -18% YTD

Tesla is the most operationally damaged among the major names. Two distinct headwinds:

1. Shanghai gigafactory cost pressure:

Shanghai gigafactory produces about 50% of global Model Y + Model 3 supply. The cost structure has shifted:

• Steel/aluminum tariffs increase battery + chassis material costs
• Component sourcing from Korea/Japan now requires tariff payment on China-assembled vehicles for non-China markets
• Cost per vehicle estimated up $1,200-1,500 for non-China shipments

2. China demand collapse:

Chinese consumer sentiment toward American brands deteriorated through 2026. Tesla China sales:

• Q1 2026: 145K units (vs Q1 2025 178K) — down 18%
• Q2 2026 projected: 130-140K units — down 22-25%

BYD, Xiaomi (with SU7), and other Chinese EV makers gained share. The Cybertruck launch in China was delayed indefinitely. The "Tesla as premium import" positioning is structurally challenged.

3. US production cost pressure:

Tesla Texas + Nevada facilities use components from Mexico, Canada, and China. Tariff impact on Texas-assembled vehicles approximately $800-1,000 per unit.

Forward outlook:

Tesla Q1 2026 revenue $23B (-2% YoY) vs expected $25B. Gross margin contracted from 19% to 16%. Forward guidance reduced.

Verdict on TSLA: Structurally weaker. China demand collapse + cost pressure + margin compression. Avoid or significantly reduce weight. Robotaxi/FSD optionality is the only thesis lever remaining; execution risk elevated.

Walmart (WMT) — pass-through with margin preservation

Stock performance Jan 20 - June 6, 2026: +6% YTD

Walmart was uniquely positioned to navigate the tariff regime: large enough to negotiate, diversified enough to absorb, US-domiciled with strong consumer brand.

The actual playbook:

1. Strategic sourcing diversification: Walmart accelerated diversification from China to India (apparel, home goods), Vietnam (electronics, footwear), Bangladesh (textiles), and Mexico (food, household goods). Diversification was already underway; 2026 saw acceleration.

2. Selective price increases: Walmart implemented price increases on China-sourced goods of 8-12% on average. Lower-end items ($1-5 range) compressed margins; higher-end items passed through fully.

3. Mexico exposure leverage: Walmart de México y Centroamérica continues to be the largest retailer in Mexico. The FIFA 2026 + general Mexico consumer growth provides offset to US tariff pressure.

4. AWS-style supplier programs: Walmart's supplier diversification program (sourcing alternatives) became a competitive moat. Smaller retailers couldn't replicate this pivot.

Margin impact:

• Q4 2025 gross margin: 24.5%
• Q1 2026 gross margin: 24.1% (down 40bp)
• Forward Q2 guidance: 24.0-24.3% (similar pressure but stable)

Net consumer impact:

WMT consumer prices on China-sourced goods are up 8-12% on average. Consumer demand has held remarkably well, suggesting the pricing was absorbed without major demand destruction.

Verdict on WMT: Stronger than expected. Operational scale + diversification + Mexico exposure all contribute. Continue holding; structural retail thesis intact.

Nike (NKE) — structurally repriced lower

Stock performance Jan 20 - June 6, 2026: -22% YTD

Nike has been one of the most damaged names among major consumer brands. Three factors:

1. Vietnam/Indonesia exposure:

Nike manufactures ~55% of footwear in Vietnam, 25% in Indonesia, 10% in China, 10% elsewhere. The reciprocal tariff regime hit:

• Vietnam: 15% tariff (reciprocal)
• Indonesia: 15% tariff
• China: 100% on athletic footwear

Combined effect: Nike's average tariff impact ~18-20% on landed cost of US-bound footwear.

2. Pricing pass-through constrained:

Nike attempted price increases of 8-12% on premium models. Demand response: weak. Athletic footwear category demand softened. Adidas (German manufacturing) gained share as Adidas tariff impact is lower (~10% vs Nike's ~18%).

3. Margin compression severe:

• Q4 2025 gross margin: 44.5%
• Q1 2026 gross margin: 41.2% (down 330bp)
• Forward Q2 guidance: 40.5-41.5% (more pressure)

Nike's brand premium + pricing power has been less elastic than expected. The "value-oriented" Nike products faced significant demand destruction.

4. Forward operational pivot:

Nike has announced acceleration of Mexico, Brazil, and India manufacturing capacity. The pivot timeline (2-3 years for meaningful shift) means the headwind continues.

Verdict on NKE: Structurally weaker. Margin compression real. The "global brand" thesis intact long-term but compressed near-term. Avoid until operational pivot shows concrete progress; current valuation cushion thin.

Walmart (WMT) competitive set — COST, TGT, ROST

Costco (COST): Less China-dependent than Walmart (more domestic + Mexico). Tariff impact moderate. Holding up well; +12% YTD.

Target (TGT): More China-dependent than Walmart; less diversified. Tariff impact significant. Down -6% YTD; margin compression ongoing.

Ross Stores (ROST): Off-price model insulated from manufacturer cost increases (buys distressed inventory). Up +8% YTD; defensive winner.

Chinese ADRs — the binary outcome

BABA, JD, PDD, BIDU, NIO, XPEV — performance varies but all weighed by tariff overhang:

Stock	YTD Performance	Tariff exposure	Forward catalyst
BABA	-14% YTD	Indirect (e-commerce margin pressure)	China domestic stimulus + Hong Kong rate convergence
JD	-22% YTD	Direct (cross-border e-commerce)	China consumer recovery
PDD	-8% YTD	Direct (Temu/Pinduoduo export)	Temu adjustments to tariff regime
BIDU	-18% YTD	Indirect (advertising tied to consumer)	China economic recovery
NIO	-28% YTD	Direct (EV battery/component costs)	China EV market consolidation
XPEV	-25% YTD	Direct (EV component sourcing)	Premium EV positioning

The binary outcome thesis:

If US-China relations deteriorate further (Taiwan crisis, technology decoupling acceleration), Chinese ADRs trade through 2024 lows. If a "Phase 2 deal" emerges (Trump's historical pattern), Chinese ADRs rally significantly. Currently, position pricing reflects 60-70% probability of continued deterioration.

For Indian retail: Chinese ADRs are speculative bets on geopolitical outcomes. Not recommended for core portfolio allocation. Selective high-conviction positioning only if you have strong views on US-China trajectory.

Sectors more broadly affected

Semiconductors (NVDA covered separately, MU, INTC):

• INTC: structurally weaker. China revenue concentration + manufacturing in US/Israel + foundry execution risk. Avoid.
• MU: cyclical with HBM offset. Defensive cyclical position.
• NVDA: covered above. Continue holding.

Autos beyond TSLA:

• F (Ford): EV strategy + Mexico exposure. Margins pressured. Hold.
• GM (General Motors): Similar to Ford + Korea/China JVs. Hold.
• TM (Toyota): Japan manufacturing + tariff regime. Hold; better positioned than US Big 3.

Apparel beyond NKE:

• LULU: Premium positioning + diversified Asia manufacturing. Down -8%; better than NKE.
• GAP: Domestic + Mexico-tilted manufacturing. Defensive winner; +4%.

Consumer electronics beyond AAPL:

• DELL/HPE: Covered in AI capex article. Mixed.
• BBY (Best Buy): Retailer pass-through. Margins compressed. Avoid.

What's still to come (Q3-Q4 2026)

The 6-month retrospective shows what's already happened. Forward catalysts to watch:

1. Phase 2 trade negotiations: Trump administration has signaled openness to "Phase 2" deal with China by end of 2026. Outcome will materially reset Chinese ADR valuations and tariff regime structure.

2. CEAUTA reauthorization (Q4 2026): USMCA review will determine Mexico/Canada exemption continuity. Material to autos + consumer goods.

3. Inventory normalization (Q3 2026): Pre-tariff inventory bought aggressively in late 2025/early 2026 will normalize. Retailers will need to fully implement tariff-adjusted pricing. Consumer price increases likely accelerate Q3.

4. Contract resets (ongoing): Multi-year supplier contracts negotiated pre-tariff will reset progressively through 2026-2027. Most impact ahead of us, not behind.

The portfolio framework for Indian retail

If you own AAPL: Continue holding. India pivot is the operational hero. The story has been better than the consensus narrative.

If you own NVDA: Continue holding. Tariff overhang manageable. Sovereign AI demand offset effective. Stress test from AI capex article matters more than tariff risk.

If you own TSLA: Reduce weight significantly. China demand + production cost + Robotaxi execution risk. Structural concerns elevated.

If you own WMT/COST: Continue holding. Operational excellence in tariff regime.

If you own NKE: Reduce weight. Wait for operational pivot evidence before adding.

If you own Chinese ADRs: Treat as speculative. Geopolitical outcome dependent.

If you own consumer staples (KO, MCD, PG): Continue holding. Less tariff-exposed; defensive in this regime.

If you own banks (JPM, BAC, GS): Net winners (covered in financials guide). Higher rates from tariff-driven inflation help margins.

The closing read

Six months in, the tariff regime has played out roughly as anticipated by experienced operators, with surprising operational resilience from the largest names.

Apple has been the surprise positive. India pivot has been faster than expected.

Walmart has demonstrated operational excellence. Scale + diversification + Mexico exposure all contributed.

Tesla has been structurally damaged. Both demand and cost sides hit.

Nike has been operationally repriced. Margin compression real, recovery distant.

NVIDIA has navigated through sovereign pivot. Tariff impact minor relative to capex cycle stress.

Chinese ADRs remain binary. Geopolitical outcomes dependent.

The most important framework for Indian retail: operational diversification matters more than initial tariff exposure. Apple's India pivot, Walmart's sourcing diversification, NVIDIA's sovereign demand — these companies have demonstrated they can manage through tariff regimes by leveraging operational flexibility. The companies without that flexibility (Nike, Tesla, Target, smaller Chinese ADRs) have been structurally weaker.

For your US allocation, tilt toward operational diversification winners (AAPL, WMT, NVDA, COST) and away from operationally rigid names (TSLA, NKE, TGT, INTC). This isn't about "tariff stocks" — it's about which businesses had the strategic foresight to build optionality before the regime change.

Cross-references

• The trillion-dollar private valuation cluster — broader market context
• AI capex stress test — NVDA framework beyond tariffs
• Financials stocks — June 2026 — banks as net winners of inflation
• FIFA World Cup 2026 stocks — Mexico exposure (WMT, KO)
• Iran war retrospective — parallel "what actually happened" framework

For Indian residents specifically:

• How RSU double-taxation actually works — tax framework for these positions
• Schedule FA disclosure guide — disclosure for US-listed positions

This article reflects tariff regime impacts through early June 2026. Specific company performance is based on publicly available data and management commentary as of cited dates.

Critical disclaimer: tariff outcomes remain politically dependent and subject to material change. Past 6-month performance does not guarantee continuation. This article describes a framework for analyzing the impact but does not substitute for personalized investment advice from a SEBI-registered investment adviser.